CAMP JOSEPH T. ROBINSON, Ark., - The New Madrid Seismic Zone was
the subject of a three-day conference here at which movers and shakers from
all over the country, and Central and South America, met to plan for the
eventuality of a major earthquake.
More than 250 National Guard leaders from more than 30 states - including
the eight states that would be most affected by a major earthquake along the
infamous fault line that once moved the mighty Mississippi River in 1812 -
met Sept. 14-16 to discuss capabilities, shortfalls and response planning.
Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and
Tennessee are all members of the Central United States Earthquake Consortium
(CUSEC), whose stated mission is the reduction of deaths, injuries, property
damage and economic losses resulting from earthquakes in the Central United
States.
The workshop was held at the National Guard Bureau's Professional Education
Center, located here in North Little Rock, Ark., and included presentations
by CUSEC, the National Emergency Management Association, the Arkansas
Geological Survey, Civil Air Patrol, SOUTHCOM and NORTHCOM.
Even America's largest retailer, Wal-Mart, offered a look at their planned
disaster response efforts.
It is widely accepted that an earthquake event with a magnitude of 6.0 or
greater would quickly absorb the response capabilities of each of the
directly-affected states.
Maj. Gen. William Wofford, the adjutant general of Arkansas, said the main
focus of the workshop was to proactively identify capabilities and gaps, and
where the respective states could turn for help.
"The main thing we get out of this is communication with other states in the
region," he said. "That's the whole idea, that we communicate with each
other, identify what our shortfalls will be for the next year, what we
project we're going to need due to unit deployments or operational
requirements, and to find out where that capability is in other states."
Dr. Paul Stockton, the assistant secretary of defense for Homeland Defense
and Americas' Security Affairs, was the keynote speaker on Sept. 14. He
gave a comprehensive presentation, centering on a unity of effort concept
between the federal government, active duty military units, National Guard
units, state governments and local emergency managers.
He led a lively discussion following his remarks, where he sought input from
everyone in the room as to how best achieve unity of effort in the face of a
catastrophe such as an earthquake in the center of the country.
According to CUSEC, there were no seismological measurements in 1812, but
recent studies and contemporary reports suggest the magnitude of the largest
of four earthquakes centering near New Madrid, Mo., was about 7.8.
Fortunately in 1812, the area was sparsely populated with few buildings and
supporting infrastructure.
Today, the region is home to millions of people, including those in the
cities of St. Louis, Mo., and Memphis, Tenn. Adding to the danger, most
structures in the region were not built to withstand earthquake shaking, as
they have been in more seismically active areas like California.
Scott Ausbrooks of the Arkansas Geological Survey said one of the greatest
dangers lies in the phenomenon of liquefaction, which occurs when loose,
sandy, water-saturated soils are strongly shaken.
He added that the soils lose their capacity to bear any weight and can flow
like a liquid.
Ausbrooks and many other experts in the room agreed that an earthquake of
such magnitude would knock out communication and nearly all of the bridges
in the Mississippi River basin in the affected states. Scientists estimate
that a magnitude 6.0 or larger earthquake is overdue in the region and could
hit the Mississippi Valley at any time.
"All of the available resources, military and civilian, will be consumed
quickly," said Wofford. "We will be overwhelmed.
"The response needs are going to exceed all of the available military and
civilian assets," said Wofford. "The affected states will need to look to
other states to fulfill any shortfalls."
Emergency Management Assistance Compacts between the states were at the
center of many discussions at the workshop.
"We have a number of handshake agreements, but we have a lot of work ahead
of us," said Wofford. "We all came to the workshop to work and to plan,
which is key, but it's a work in progress."
Also attending the conference were several National Guard State Partnership
Program members. Capt. Francisco Abrego of the Chilean military, which is
partnered with Texas, gave an enlightening description of how that country
dealt with a recent 8.8 magnitude event.
"I wanted to show the problems we had and how we fixed them," he said. "You
don't have to make the same mistake again. You can use the experience of
others."
Representatives from Bolivia and Guatemala also attended the conference and
workshop.
Wofford said the agreements hammered out this year will be reviewed next
year, taking into account troop deployments and operations considerations in
the responding states.
"The planning aspect is the real benefit of a workshop like this, and having
the National Guard Bureau, the federal government, civilian agencies and
supporting states here is invaluable," he said. "We've communicated, we've
coordinated and now we're cooperating."